"An era can be said to end when its basic illusions are exhausted." - Arthur Miller

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

My Election 2008 Projection

Using Real Clear Politics interactive map, below is my best guess on how election night will go. My best guess is 278-260 for Obama. That projection is based on history, my pessimistic view of people in general, polling information from 538.com and a whole lot of guess work. By midnight tonight I will know how close or not I am. I am hoping I am completely off the mark and the result is really the 349-189 that 358.com is projecting.

I think the undecided vote will go about 70%-30% in McCain's favor resulting in all toss up states going McCain's way. This includes the usually critical Florida, Ohio and Virginia. On the plus side, Obama has run a campaign that minimizes the importance of the "battleground" states and he will just eek out a win, assuming no voting fraud occurs.

According to Yahoo's Election timeline we could know the results shortly after 7:00pm when polls close in multiple states. If Georgia, Indiana, and Virginia all go solid Obama early, that will indicates a landslide. If they don't or remain too close to call, that will indicate a long night is in store for everyone.

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