My Election 2008 Projection

Using Real Clear Politics interactive map, below is my best guess on how election night will go. My best guess is 278-260 for Obama. That projection is based on history, my pessimistic view of people in general, polling information from 538.com and a whole lot of guess work. By midnight tonight I will know how close or not I am. I am hoping I am completely off the mark and the result is really the 349-189 that 358.com is projecting.

I think the undecided vote will go about 70%-30% in McCain's favor resulting in all toss up states going McCain's way. This includes the usually critical Florida, Ohio and Virginia. On the plus side, Obama has run a campaign that minimizes the importance of the "battleground" states and he will just eek out a win, assuming no voting fraud occurs.

According to Yahoo's Election timeline we could know the results shortly after 7:00pm when polls close in multiple states. If Georgia, Indiana, and Virginia all go solid Obama early, that will indicates a landslide. If they don't or remain too close to call, that will indicate a long night is in store for everyone.