"An era can be said to end when its basic illusions are exhausted." - Arthur Miller

Monday, June 06, 2005

Apple Switches to Intel

Read it here, Apples waves buy to IBM and says hello to Intel chips starting in 2007 but slow phasing in beginning now. Many may think its gloom and doom for Apple but it could be an excellent idea depending on a few decisions or hurdles.

Hurdle 1 is re-writing all that software and OS. Apple just released another update of OS X and now with a chip change they practically have to re-write it and all other software. Technically a driver update alone can handle it, but it simple wouldn't run as smooth or as quick as software built around a certain chipset. Since Apple likes to trump (its now decaying) dependability, they and related vendors have no choice.

Which leads to hurdle 2. What if many vendors say to hell with re-writing their software or at the very least delay. After all thats alot of work for a company that only has 2% market share. Microsoft and Adobe together could decide not to rewrite Photoshop and Office and that could break Apple's back before the first Intel machine ships.

Hurdle 3 is the pissed off customer base. Apple users tend to be a rabid die hard bunch. Anything that even sniffs of Apple tends to blow their tops and the resulting bad press for the next 2 years could be more damaging then Jobs may think. First step is to make sure those die hards are not losing the Apple they know and love. And nevermind confusion for the less computer savvy who will know have to know what their chipset is to make proper software and hardware purchases. That alone is going to be a troubleshooting nightmare.

Hurdle 4 is the price of those machines could come close to PCs. Cheaper will be nice but at least close to average PC price. iPods show that people are willing to pay a little bit more for looks, the key is making sure that Apple finds that sweet spot of not charging to much. Something they have historically had a problem doing but slowing getting better at. To truly compete however, they can't take their golly sweet time working out the price.

If Apple can overcome these main hurdles, they do have extra pluses going for them. Plus One is the iPod/iTunes combo. Here they have this massive highway into Windows world introducing millions to what Apple is able to do with both hardware and software. If they don't ruin that good will in the next two years, they can use those inroads to promote the intel version of the Macs. One top of that, the iPod shows that people are willing to pay more for a well engineered and gorgeous product. In other words, looks matter, even for computers and Apple bar none has the best looking machines on the market.

This leads to plus number two. Since its an intel chipset, which currently is on many many Windows PCs (such as Dell) this means that technically an Apple machine can run Windows instead of Mac. So users who want the look of a Mac but the OS of Windows can do that. Lots of customers there alone. Or even better, if Apple has some brains, they will make sure that the Intel OS X can run Windows programs nativily or in a built in emulator. Suddenly you can have the best of both worlds. Talk about maximum value. However, I don't see Jobs' ego allowing this to occur and the die hard community will shit a brick.

Finally plus number 3 is the GHZ speed. Most people here 3.2 ghz dell computer or 1.5 G5 they just assume that bigger number equals faster machine. And not only faster but cheaper so hince better deal. Now, finally, Apple can compete at a level the average customer understands. Now number for number there will be a true and easy comparison. Assuming Intel gives Apple the lastest and greatest (and it doesn't have to, Dell could say nope and since bigger customer Intel will listen) then in stats, Apple will have a level ground.

The main key I think however is Apple embracing Windows and windows programming either with duel boot setup (by at least not preventing it) or more smartly building it into the OS. To bad Apple didn't go with some of the proven (and cheaper) chipmakers such as AMD. That alone would have handled the pricing hurdle they have to deal with.

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