"An era can be said to end when its basic illusions are exhausted." - Arthur Miller

Showing posts with label 2008 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 Election. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Links of the Day

Star Wars Galaxy Mapped - Click the link for a high resolution, CGI map of the Star Wars Galaxy. It pretty amazing how many planets and the like it has grown over the years and the amount of detail there is considering each planet has been given its own look.

Pro Net-Neutrality Pick for FCC - Obama has picked Julius Genachowski as his choice for FCC Chairman. The amazing thing about this choice is the guy actually knows and likes technology who has served on the FCC before. More importantly, he is pro net-neutrality, important when the teleco's are doing their best to try and introduce a tier system so they can legally charge more for less.

Prison Break and Other Fox Plans - Sadly Prison Break is cancelled, a shame considering it found its legs again after the horrible last season. On the bright side Fox, unlike piss poor managed NBC, knows that it pleases viewers and helps DVD sales to provide series finales. Also good news is very strong indications Fringe will get a second season. However, enjoy Dollhouse as the lukewarm reply on that show is that is toast before it’s even started. Probably publicity and money is the only reason they are bothering to air it at all.

Sanctuary RED One Camera - Click the link for a brief behind the scenes video on the high tech camera that allows for televisions first nearly all green screen production to thrive. The show story wise isn't groundbreaking but it is entertaining. Besides I watch mostly because of Amanda Tapping.

Palin, Alaska Daily News Email Exchange - Pretty much Palin did her how unfair that the press dares write or question her and the editor did a good job ripping her complaints apart. Long story short, what she does, who she knows, what they do and how they do it is a story. If she didn't want the attention, she shouldn't have accepted the spotlight.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Links of the Day

Spider-Man Meets Obama - Marvel, mostly as a publicity stunt, is producing a "special issue" of Amazing Spider-Man where the hero meets Barack Obama on his inauguration day. Its really a five page story add on to the comic rather then an entire issue devoted to the meet-up. The comic will go on sale next week.

Palin Whines About Couric, Palin - In a sit-down with extreme conservative John Ziegler, ex-VP candidate Sarah Palin whines about how unfair the press was with their questions and their scrutiny of her qualifications, essentially saying they cared only because she was a woman. Basically her argument is it’s not ok to question her but its ok to say that others "pal around with terrorists." As usual, the conservative moral compass wanders if it interferes with them.

2009 Razzie Awards Nominations - The anti-Oscar awards have announced their nominees for worst films of the year in various categories. Sadly Speed Racer is included, which shows that often the Razzie's are based more on box office performance then the film itself (much like the Oscars). Still it’s an interesting list of the crap that came out last year. I expect the Love Guru to home the most "awards".

New Watchman Trailer and Behind Scenes Video - Click the link for two video for Watchman. The first is a modified trailer that shows more of third term Nixon that is part of the story and the second gets into details of the first group of Minuteman and a B&W photo that is a key prop and story point in the film.

EGM Ceases Publication - After 20 years of dedicated service to the video game industry, EGM ceases publication as of its January issue. This is part of the fall out of the sale of the 1UP Network to UGO yesterday where the layoffs have already begun (usually there is a slight delay when one company buys another). This leaves only GamePro and GameInformer as the hold-outs in paper form, until they too are probably gobbled up as old media finishes its death spiral.
R.I.P. EGM 1989 - 2009

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Top 5 Moments of the Year

A lot of stuff happened this year, most of it political, all of it historical. To keep it simple, I picked the five moments that make this year amazing (yet tragic).

5) Wall-E / The Dark Knight
Two fantastic movies that didn't require history, making an actor look ugly, or the Holocaust to make the best movies of the year. Hollywood at its finest with more to come from Pixar and hopefully Nolan. Below are the Wall-E trailer and the tragic but fantastic ending to The Dark Knight.


4) Sarah Palin Couric Interview
John McCain's choice of complete unknown Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was seen by many as both odd and impulsive. Her background showed absolutely nothing to indicate she was qualified for the second highest position in the country. She was able to do something that McCain wasn't by getting the full and devoted following of "the base", die hard Republicans and evangelicals that provide money, campaigning and ground game that a GOP Presidential candidate depends on for achieving a victory. The momentum, for the first time, shifted to McCain. Suddenly victory was a real possible...until this infamous interview. An interview so bad that SNL parodied it to perfection a few days later. With this disaster of an interview and several that followed, the fence sitters realized what many of us already figured out, that Sarah Palin was in way over her head. She is truly, beyond all doubt "Bush in drag" and this country has had enough of a stubborn mule with no intelligence, curiosity and mediocre leadership skills. Thanks to this interview, America dodged a bullet.

3) The Last Lecture by Dr. Randy Pausch
Yes this came out last year, but I didn't hear about until this year. A truly remarkable speech from a remarkable teacher. It’s the life lessons of a man who fought and lost the batter to cancer but lived life to the fullest regardless. He did something truly rare; he changed many people with a message and not with violence. Below is the entire 75 minute video, but a 10 minute version can be found here.

2) Beijing Olympics
Athletic perfection is a requirement when victory is often measured in millimeters and milliseconds and this year's Olympics proved that over and over again. Michael Phelps historic and dramatic run for 8, those amazing opening ceremonies of perfect execution from thousands, Dana Torres proving that age isn't the boundary it use to be and many more moments. Below is the NBC credits montage video that does an excellent job of summarizing these Games.

1) Barack Obama Elected President
In something I never thought I would see, a black man is elected President and by a wide margin to boot. For me though, the election is more about the hope that the United States can finally begin the long and difficult battle of getting out of the whole that Republicans have buried us in with their "big business first, no matter what" policies. McCain promised four more years of Bush, Obama promised that the Bush years don't work and something new is needed and the people, for once, listened. Below is a cool moment at Grant Park when an already excited crowd got louder at the moment his victory was announced. Even more amazing is the global celebration (here and here) of his victory, a sign to me that the world is rooting for us and that we still have friends everywhere.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Political Links and Junk

The Onion: Obsessive Supporters - Amusing video that asks the question of "what now?" for Obama supporters that woke up the day after the election without a candidate to sell or talk about electing.

Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are


The Moment - A video that captures the moment in Grant Park when Barack Obama was announced that he was the next President of the United States. Regardless of party, the reaction and the joy that comes across is pretty good to behold. It also says a lot how much people are hurting and how desperately hope is needed right now over the fear Republicans continue to sell. Barack may not be able to keep his promises of "change" but it is better then more of the same. Don't worry Republicans, Palin has made it clear that the slander, attack, pander and fear party you know and love will be back for 2012.


50 Barack Obama Facts - Cute little article that covers little tidbits about the President-elect such as collecting Spider-Man and Conan the Barbarian comics, being left0handed, early jobs and many other things.

Secrets of the 2008 Campaign - Really long 7 part story from Newsweek that covers the last two years of the Presidential campaign. Worth a read for anybody that likes a little peak behind the curtain. They also have a series of video that interview the reporters that help compile the information in the articles.

Secret Service: Palin Caused Increase of Death Threats - Sarah Palin's campaign for President amounted to a case of why NOT to vote for Barack Obama rather then why to vote FOR John McCain. As part of that she took great pride in stroking fears of the base. As is often the case when dealing with ignorant people that can't be bothered to verify on their own if information is correct (he is a Muslim, pals with terrorists, etc), violence is considered the only proper response. The result, once Sarah started her campaign of fear, the threats against Obama increased. To think, this is the woman considered the future of the Republican Party.

Inauguration Tickets for Sale - Apparently the tickets for the 1/20 event are going for as high as $20,000. Personally I think the view will be better from TV (and without the cold) but each their own. Buyer beware though, this will likely lead to a lot of scams so I you don't know someone that can get them for you for free (the real cost of the tickets), I wouldn't risk the purchase.

Obama to Reverse Bush - Obama plans to hit the ground running by striking many of Bush's executive orders that existed to promote the Republican agenda or help his business friends. This could include restrictions on stem cell research, preventing carbon dioxide emissions control for California, and many others. Its sounds like a good start to a long road to repair this country from the Republican Party whose mantra of the last 8 years has clearly been "party first, business friends second, country last."

Poll, Bush at Lowest Ever - A new poll shows that only 16% of the country say things are going well in the country, the first time that number has ever dipped below 20%. 83% say things are going badly, the highest the percentage has ever been. Bush as a 76% disapproval level, the highest for any President in the last 6 decades. The previous record holder was Harry Truman in 1952 with a rating of 67%. Considering the economy is getting worse, I don't think Bush has topped out just yet either.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Inside Consumers Reports, Trailers, Palin Stupidity and Ann Nixon Cooper

Inside Consumer Reports' Testing Lab - From Gizmodo, an article that has images and two videos from the magazines testing labs. If you don't subscribe, I recommend it, as it can save you some time and money and maybe provide that tipping point when debating which products to buy.

The Day The Earth Stood Still TV Spots - I am not sold on this movie yet. The effects look good, Keanu Reeves taste in entertaining movies is rock solid, it’s just that I still have no idea what the story is about. I guess the earth is about to kill the human race unless one guy can be convinced (probably by the kid he runs with) not to. Havoc ensues in the meantime. The special effects look really good though based on the spots below.



Meet Ann Nixon Cooper - The 106 year old from Atlanta was the centerpiece of Barack Obama's acceptance speech. As they said she has seen a lot of history and met a lot of those figures too. Oddly she hasn't met Obama yet but hopefully that will change. Either because he gets an invite to his inauguration or because he comes to Atlanta to help Martin defeat that slime Saxby Chambliss.

Palin vs McCain Information - From Fox News, behind the scenes information is starting to come out regarding Palin and her extreme lack of knowledge and attitude she had during the campaign. Everything you hear about her continues to support the notion that she is truly Bush in drag. We had eight years of a non-intellectual that remains curious about nothing and it seems Republicans want the female version of the same thing.


Windows 3.x Discontinued - 18 years later and Microsoft has finally ended the licensing of the legendary operating system. My first computer ran off of 3.1 and its how I learned many of the computer skills I have today. It is amazing how much computers have and have not changed over the years.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Obama Wins, The World Celebrates

Australian celebrationAs a sign of just how far the United States has fallen in the eyes of the world, there where actual celebrations both in the states and across the world at the election of Barack Obama as the next President of the United States. As part of the celebration, Barack gave an excellent victory speech (below) and McCain provided a solid, classy concession speech that sadly given before a not so classy audience.

From USAToday: "From Beijing's streets to France's Elysee Palace, common citizens and leaders of the world greeted Barack Obama's election largely as a sign of hope that America would mend torn international relations and lead the way out of global economic turmoil."

Worldwide reaction
World Markets Rally After Election
Other reactions
BBC Op-Ed on Election

Obama Victory Speech


Dancing in the Streets

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Welcome to History

It is official.

Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.

My Election 2008 Projection

Using Real Clear Politics interactive map, below is my best guess on how election night will go. My best guess is 278-260 for Obama. That projection is based on history, my pessimistic view of people in general, polling information from 538.com and a whole lot of guess work. By midnight tonight I will know how close or not I am. I am hoping I am completely off the mark and the result is really the 349-189 that 358.com is projecting.

I think the undecided vote will go about 70%-30% in McCain's favor resulting in all toss up states going McCain's way. This includes the usually critical Florida, Ohio and Virginia. On the plus side, Obama has run a campaign that minimizes the importance of the "battleground" states and he will just eek out a win, assuming no voting fraud occurs.

According to Yahoo's Election timeline we could know the results shortly after 7:00pm when polls close in multiple states. If Georgia, Indiana, and Virginia all go solid Obama early, that will indicates a landslide. If they don't or remain too close to call, that will indicate a long night is in store for everyone.

Monday, November 03, 2008

Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

Tomorrow is Election Day. For the first time in four years, the American people once again have a say in what they think on how our representatives are currently running the country and the direction they want it to be in the future. The key though is to show up and vote. Tomorrow is expected to break record numbers along with probably a record number of broken voting machines so lines are to be expected.

As this blog probably has made clear, I want Barack Obama to win this election. My opinion is based on the simple reality that McCain is promising to simple continue Bush's failed policies for four more years. They haven't worked in 8, four more isn't going to change things.

Right now, things are looking good for Obama. He is showing an average lead of 6.8 points in most of the national polls. The thing is he can still lose if people get complacent and just assume the election is done. It isn't. It is far from done. Until every vote is counted and every state makes it official, the election could still go either way.

Turnout. You want things to change, you want something other then Bush polices you have to show up. You have to wait in line and you have to cast your vote. Make your voice heard that corporate first policies of the Republican Party are unacceptable. That means not just voting for Obama but against Republicans running for Congress.

If people turnout, Obama wins. In states that are close, turnout can turn the tide. If people stay at home or work (info on work and voting is here) because of the weather, the lines, just don't feel like it and any other excuse - then McCain wins and you have no one to blame but yourself.

The last two years has been about everything thinking one thing, tomorrow is about taking those thoughts and turning them into action.

Vote tomorrow for Obama, vote for change. Vote against a corrupt establishment that has nearly bankrupted this country and our future.

SNL and Other Political Humor

SNL had a pretty good weekend with their skits. John McCain did a pretty good job sending himself up, Ben Affleck did a vicious Keith Olbermann and even sheltered Elisabeth Hasselbeck got skewered. On top of that, Sarah Palin got pranked by a Canadian radio station and in usual fashion she had no ability to just go with the flow and turn a negative moment into a positive one for herself. It probably explains why her campaign stump speeches are really about why not to vote for Obama and very little to do with why to vote for McCain.

McCain on QVC


The View Parody


Keith Olbermann Parody


Sarah Palin Pranked

Monday, October 20, 2008

Colin Powell, Palin on SNL, Map of Voting Tech, and Bachman

Colin Powell Endorses Obama - Former Secretary of State Colin Powell officially announced his endorsement of Obama as President. While the pundits spent Sunday and today making noises about it (and republicans condemned it or dismissed it as racial), I can't help but wonder what the big deal is. After the disaster of Iraq, Powell has little credibility and at this late in the game does anyone really believe that the fence sitters where waiting for Powell before making a decision? I don't. I think the result of this is free publicity for Obama and not much else. Little voters are going to be swayed by the endorsement making it valueless beyond bragging rights.

Real Sarah Palin on SNL - Governor Palin showed up on SNL this weekend and the result was a ho-hum effort at best despite the able assistance of Tina Fey, Alec Baldwin and Mark Walhberg. The cause seems the just lack of humor that was conveyed. The sketches where about making fun of SNL rather then making fun of Sarah Palin and the political process (the usual pastime when politicians show up on SNL). Whether this is because Palin vetoed such an attempt or the writers themselves is unknown. Considering she needed the assist of no less then 7 other players to help in her sketches I am thinking she (or the McCain camp) vetoed most of the ideas leading to the dull result that aired.



Map of Voting Technology - Click the link for a map that breaks down the technology that the various states are using this November to help in the election. In general, the more tech, the easier to hack but the less likely that voter error will occur. The suggestion seems to be a trade off is the result. Personally I am all for the tech as long as paper record is required with every vote that is randomly audited to verify that electronic record matches. All the talk about ACORN, the problem in securing voter integrity isn't making sure that people that don't exist doesn't get on the voter rolls, its making sure that legitimate voters do vote and their vote is counted correctly. A hacked machine can undo thousands of votes and only requires one person. ACORN's efforts would require hundreds if not thousands of people to execute their so-called plan of voter fraud. Which do you think is more likely to occur?

Michelle Bachmann: Liberal = Anti-American - In McCain's quest to paint Obama as terrorist, Bachmann went a bit too far (as if she wasn't already) by claiming that essentially all liberals are anti-American. She went so far as to suggest that her fellow Congressmen should be investigated for being un-American. I am betting she would have loved the McCarthy era. She is up for re-election. Anyone that thinks sharing a contrary viewpoint is un-American shouldn't be holding office.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Final Debate Wrap-Up

The final Presidential Debate has ended and all that remains is for people to shut up and put up by voting. The feel of the debate was different. John McCain's goal was less selling why to vote for him and more about saying why not to vote for Barack Obama. For Obama the goal was to sell himself and to deflect McCain's attacks.

The result is on the substance and the issues, Obama was the clear victor of the debate. On creating seeds of doubt, I give the win to McCain. At this point, frankly there is no excuse for someone to be undecided. If someone hasn't made a decision by now, they are either incapable of making a decision or looking for an excuse to commit to a choice they have already made. Usually that excuse doesn't have much to it and often based on something negative which only helps McCain. Time will tell if my thoughts on this bear out. Overall though, the "inexperienced" Obama managed to beat McCain three times out of three.

On a side note, its interesting to hear all the pundits spend the last few weeks make the argument I made way back in January on what the election should and is about - the middle class.

Links
Debate video
Compare Candidates on Issues and Fact Check Debate

CNN Poll - based on 620 debate viewers
Won debate: 58% Obama, 31% McCain
Favorable Opinion: Obama - 63% before, 66% after; McCain - 51% before, 49% after
Handle economy better: 59% Obama, 35% McCain
Better job on taxes: 56% Obama, 41% McCain
Better on health care: 62% Obama, 31% McCain
Better expressed views: 66% Obama, 25% McCain
Stronger leader: 48% Obama, 25% McCain
Time attacking: 7% Obama, 80% McCain
Like typical politican: 35% Obama, 54% McCain

CBS Poll - based on 638 uncommitted voters
Won debate: 53% Obama, 22% McCain, 25% Tie
Trusted on health care: Obama - 61% bfore, 68% after; McCain - 27% before, 30% after
Will raise taxes: 65% Obama, 50% McCain
Share their values: Obama - 54% before, 64% after; McCain - 52% before, 55% after
Trusted in crisis: Obama - 50% before, 63% after; McCain - 78% before, 82% after
Trusted on enonomy: Obama - 54% before, 65% after; McCain - 38% before, 48% after
Understands needs, problems: Obama - 66% before, 76% after; McCain - 36% before, 48% after

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Special Comment: Control Your Campaign

Another special comment (transcript) from Keith Olbermann, this time directed at John McCain's current campaign against Barack Obama where the goal seems to be to fan the flames of hate rather then discuss the issues. I guess focusing on the economy isn't worth while to McCain when they can play their association game where knowing Ayers means you are a terrorist. Since Keating was a terrorist too, McCain didn't just know a terrorist, he colluded with one to defraud the government and people. McCain's negative campaign is getting problematic and as more reports come in of hate filled shouts of rhetoric, it is also getting dangerous.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Voter Fraud, McCain, Stupid and Dow Hit Again

Voter Disenfranchisement Begins - The New York Times is reporting that voter fraud has begun as multiple battleground states currently under the control of republicans has begun its annual attempt to purge mostly poor, blacks, etc (that tend to vote Democrat) from the voter roles. While Republicans pretend the fear is one person voting twice (so an ID is needed), the real problem is behind the scenes bureaucrats summarily removing thousands of registrants for no reason.

Olbermann on McCain Terrorist Ties - Keith continues to use the Republican Transitive Property of Terrorism on McCain where apparently being on boards with someone means you support terrorists. Turns out that McCain has associated with a few terrorists of his own (besides Keating) going by that unreasonable standard.

The Stupid Shall Inherit the Earth - A video that shows a mob mentality that has begun infecting the McCain/Palin supporters. Even worse, most seem utterly incapable of articulating why one candidate is better then the other based on issues and the like. Nope their reasons come down to his name; it’s oh so scary Muslim sounding. I wish I was kidding. How hard is it to say on this that and the other issues, McCain (or Obama) does or does not align better with me. Sadly, it seems fear continues to rule the day for most people.


Dow Takes Another Hit - Well the collapse of trickle down economics continues as investors worldwide continue to show zero faith in the market. For the first time in five years it drops below 8000 points and sadly the bottom probably hasn't been reached.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

2nd Presidential Debate Wrap-Up

Well a little late but here it is. My brief wrap up of the debate (video here). Long story short, Obama won it. McCain needed a victory, the bigger the better, but it didn't happen. Obama simply landed more hits to McCain's rather weak "he doesn't understand" attempts. Sadly the debate itself focused only briefly on the economy before shifting focus to foreign policy which essentially resulted in the same answers as the first debate. Brokaw as moderator was a fail as his questions didn't really provide any new insight on why undecided’s should choose one candidate over another.

I think the net result on polling will be a slight bump for Obama but hard to tell if that is because of the debate or because a continuation of his momentum which will probably hit a ceiling soon (only so many undecideds left after all). If your already pro a particular candidate you probably didn't hear anything to make you doubt your choice. I still don't think the election accounts for closet racism which will lead to a much close election then polls currently indicate.

At this point I don't see the third debate accomplishing much of anything. I doubt either candidate will commit major gaffes of any importance (sorry "that one" in context of the guy standing next to him isn't a gaffe) that will alter the campaign. For the undecideds that remain, more then likely they will not make a decisive decision until they walk into booth to vote and then I am betting most will vote along whatever party affiliation they have in the past.

Fact Check debate statements

Polls
CBS - poll of 500 undecided voters
Impact on voter preference: 15% Obama, 14% McCain, 70% uncommitted (basically no change from VP debate, net result a wash)
Trust on Economy: McCain - 41% before, 49% after; Obama - 54% before, 68% after
Understands Needs: McCain - 35% before, 46% after; Obama - 60% before, 80% after
Ready to be President: McCain - 80% before, 84% after; Obama - 42% before, 57% after
Answer questions: 57% yes, 42% no for both candidates
Again a wash. Obama is strong on economy and needs but lack of faith overall in prepared for the job of being President mitigates those gains.

CNN - poll of those that watched the debate
Stronger leader: 54% Obama, 43% McCain
More likeable: 65% Obama, 28% McCain
More intelligent: 57% Obama, 25% McCain
Clearly expressed himself: 60% Obama, 30% McCain
More Negative: 63% McCain, 17% Obama
Answered questions: 50% Obama, 37% McCain
Care more about problems: 50% Obama, 36% McCain
Seemed like "typical politician": McCain by a 16pt margin
Favorable opinion: Obama - before 60%, after 64%; McCain - unchanged

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Gas Profits, Obama Gains, McCain's Healthcare Plan and Colbert

Where Gas Money Goes - A nice little diagram that breaks down where all that oil profit and money goes. The picture to the left is tiny and hard to read so instead click here to view the full size one.

Obama Gains in Bush States - In a sign of just how bad things are, even traditionally Republican states are turning on McCain. North Carolina went from easy win to dead heat, he trails in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are now Obama leaning and Florida is now a toss up. Overall, current polling puts McCain at a 1:9 shot in winning the election.

McCain's Healthcare Plan Costs - On paper McCain's plan is pretty straight forward. He bribes the average America with $2500 credit (that does straight to your insurance company). In reality it’s more complicated. First off, do your really think if you spend less then five thousand you will get that back? Of course not. Second, he intends to tax the insurance your company currently pays for. So go ahead and add about $10,000 to your adjusted income to get an idea of what kind of increase that will bring come April. Now, pray to your HR reps that they just don't use this as an excuse to cut your insurance entirely. Because if they do (as predicted about 50% of companies will), then suddenly the problem isn't paying taxes on $10,000 or so, its paying for the monthly insurance fees that will double or triple (assuming you don't have a pre-existing condition, otherwise no insurance for you). As the article above reports, there is now a new wrinkle. It turns out to pay for his bribe; McCain is going to cut Medicare and Medicaid by $1.3 trillion. That generally means increasing the age people get into the program (ouch about to retire? Might want to wait), cutting what is covered (ooh heart condition, no go for that surgery), and probably increasing the rules of eligibility (just how handicapped are you really?). While both candidates’ plans need a lot of work, it’s pretty clear that McCain's is a disaster waiting to happen.

Stephen Colbert Talks Colbert and Politics - An interesting summary of one meeting between Stephen Colbert and Ariel Levy where he discusses his show, his character and politics in general. A very good read.

Special Comment: McSmear's Campaign

Keith Olbermann aired another special comment last night, this time focused on the McCain/Palin ticket's choice of renewing its campaign of distraction. Rather then focus on say the economy, McCain and Palin have instead decided to play a bizarre game of connect the dots. The basic argument is Ayers set off bombs that killed no one when Obama was 8. 40+ years later Obama attended a part that Ayers happened to host. So by the Republican Transitive Property of Terrorism, since Ayers is a terrorist, and Obama went to his house, Obama must support terrorism.

Now if we consider the Republican Transitive Property as political law, which McCain and Palin clearly do, then this brings us to Keating. The man caused the last economic fiasco that cost around $500 billion in bailouts. He helped destroy the lives of thousands of families and businesses which sounds like a form of terrorism to me. McCain attempted to block investigations into Keating because of his support of his campaign. So by the above rule, if Keating is a terrorist, McCain attempted to circumvent the law to protect Keating, then McCain must support terrorism.

Palin's turn. Palin credits a clergyman with her ascension to becoming Governor. The clergyman was a witch doctor in Kenya where he cause the death of a woman by claming she was a witch. That sounds like terrorism to me. So terrorist "clergyman" who helped kill a woman. Palin supports this "clergyman". By the Republican Transitive Property, Palin supports terrorism.

So again, by the Republican transitive property, we have two supports of terrorists running for President and one for VP. So the question then becomes which is worse. The "terrorist" that killed no one (Obama) or the one that destroyed unknown number of lies very much like what is happening right now (McCain).

Know I don't think any of the above is true but if McCain wants to play this game of smearing by the transitive property, he really needs to sweep around his own door first. Anyway, the transcript of the comment is here, video below.

Monday, October 06, 2008

Post VP Debate Fun

SNL Palin / Biden Skit - Hilarious skit where Tina Fey once again becomes Palin with eerie accuracy. The skit skewers both VP candidates and pretty scathing to boot.


Palin Debate Prep Flow Chart - Funny picture from that pretty much summarizes Palin's entire debate strategy. While people compliment her "exceeding expectations" short of her crying on stage I don't know how she could not have. Her answers to questions not asked lacked substance, her need to change the conversation when she didn't have a canned response, and inability to think on her feet did nothing to make me think she is capable of leading a PTA meeting much less the country.

David Letterman's Debate Recap - The Late Show editor's had fun mashing up words from Sarah Palin during the debate to create some rather funny statements from her own mouth. A tool I am sure the McCain camp may copy in their attempt to change the campaign conversation into Obama's character rather then the problems the country is facing.


Dow Takes Another Tumble - Speaking of issues, the Dow Jones took an 800 point nose dive dropping below 10000 points for the first time since October 24, 2003. It’s being read as a sign that the bailout bill isn't going to address the credit problems mostly because of lack of confidence in the government. As I said before, the stock market is 1 part data, 3 parts illusion and this is a further example about how that plays. Currently there is zero information to support or contradict this lack of confidence but sadly once people doubt, it tends to feed itself creating self-profiling prophecies.

"Make Believe Maverick" - An article from Rolling Stone that pretty much summarizes the history of John McCain. In essence he was an incompetent pilot (crashed multiple planes), who caved to the Vietcong (multiple "confessions", while other POWs didn't), exaggerates his war experience and record (not much), womanizing, and just a generally petty man whose history of being a maverick is backed only by words but not by deeds.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Post VP Debate Analysis

The only VP Debate of the year is over and Palin is probably breathing a big sigh of relief as she actually didn't do half bad and it seems the polls and pundits agree.

The main theme for Joe Biden is "change" and that McCain is more of the same. For Sarah Palin it was McCain "is the Maverick" and also "change". In both cases the goal and the focus was to sell their Presidential candidate with less focus on themselves. The main difference was style. Biden focused on facts and information, Palin focused on connecting with the audience.

I have the opinion that the election is decided on three main things. First is party, second is likeability and in a very distance third are the issues. When it comes to likeability, Palin's focus on "gosh shucks" type talk and keeping things simple with "beauty pageant" type responses that lack substance but are pleasing to the ear probably will be a big boom to the McCain campaign and something to build on. Just keep her away from the press as she demonstrated that she clearly was working almost exclusively from prepared responses and the unpredictable nature of the press is still beyond her skill set.

Biden did better on facts but I think failed to connect with the audience. He tried to avoid being condescending but sadly did little to alleviate the "elitist" badge that somehow was tied to the Democrats. His frequent use of "let me repeat that" type moments probably didn't go over to well and should have been avoided. His best moment was towards the end when talking about his wife and child but that wasn't enough. For those that are focused on the issues he was a clear winner but likeability trumps issues so his inability to sell the "he is like me" to the electorate washed out his strong showing.

The net result is the Biden "won" the Vice Presidential Debate. However, because expectations where so utterly low for Palin, she is going to be given a huge boost for getting out of the debate without major errors. So while Biden technically achieves the victory, the increase in profile and likeability for Palin results in a wash.

For those that already like each of them will simply like them more. For those already leaning towards one just received confirmation of a decision they had really already made but wasn't willing to admit. The true undecideds (which I think only represent about 8% at this point) will remain neutral as the debate did nothing except make them more receptive to Palin and thus McCain. As a result they will probably wait it out for the final two presidential debates.

In the overall electoral college and state polling, same thing. There will be movement but ultimately already leaning blue will become bluer and leaning red will become redder. Any gains in one state will be offset by losses in another, resulting in at most a +1 or 2 advantage for Obama. Not enough to lock the election.

Some links:
Debate transcript - Something worth reading as your getting just the information without voices, body language and the like that may impact it. What I noticed is what you pic up watching the debate vs. hearing the debate vs. reading the debate can lead to different conclusions on certain answers.
Debate Video - from CNN, the full debate.
CBS Reality Check - Quick summary of mis-information from the debate on both sides.

CNN Poll - quick poll of those that watched the debate
Won debate: 51% Biden, 26% Palin
Likability: 54% Palin, 36% Biden
Exceed Expectations: 84% Palin, 64% (a sign of how little people expected)
Qualifications: 87% Biden, 42% Palin (not good for Palin but that can be built on, as long as doesn't talk to the press)

CBS Poll - poll of 473 uncommitted voters
Won debate: 46% Biden, 21% Palin, 33% Tie
Committ to ticket: 18% committed to Obama/Biden, 10% McCain/Palin, 71% remain uncommitted (this just proves my point, those already leaning in one direction got the excuse they needed for a decision they had already made)
Improved opinion of VP candidate: 53% Biden, 55% Palin (I figured Palin's numbers would be much higher considering expectations)
Worse opinion of VP candidate: 5% Biden, 14% (higher then want but not a big deal)
No change of opinion: 42% Biden, 30% Palin
More knowledgeable about issues - from 43% before to 66% after for Palin, from 79% to 98% after for Biden (Palin's credibility is still a huge sticking point)
Prepared for VP job: from 39% before to 55% after for Palin, from 81% before to 97% after for Biden (again credibility and issue for Palin)
Effective as President: from 35% before to 44% after for Palin, from 66% to 91% for Biden (ditto)

538.com - Excellent website that tracks polling across the country and uses statistically math to project the election based on current information.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Nintendo DSi, Cox Three Strikes, Fox News Funny and More Palin

Nintendo Announcements - Click the link for a summary of information that came out from Nintendo as it shows its cards for the next year. The highlights include a new version of the DS called DSi, Club Nintendo for North America, Wii Speak Channel (with peripheral), "hard drive" solution, and new games including Punch Out!!. The DSi is about the same as current DS but has slightly larger screen, no GBA slot, two cameras, SD slot, and 12% thinner.

Cox Three Strikes Policy - In a sign that people either need to complain or switch carriers, Cox Communications has instituted a three strikes DMCA Policy that has no basis on the law. In collusion with the RIAA and MPAA, they will cut off internet service to any one that gets three DMCA notices. The problem, other then they don't have to do that, is that those notices are usually not based on any real proof, just a suspicion. It’s a large reason why the RIAA keeps losing most of its copyright cases. It’s a bad policy, setting a bad precedent that can only lead to these companies becoming more big brother and charging more for less. Keep in mind that a bandwidth cap is probably on the horizon and this kind of crap only encourages it when customers don't react.

"It's Split" - Fox News either can't count or desperate to make the race closer then it is (which isn't fair nor balanced but good for ratings). The reporter asks for a show of hands of who is voting for who and gets none for McCain, most for Obama and says "It's split" which results in people in the room laughing at him. The guy either isn't very bright or is trying to be ironic.


Another Cafferty Comment on Palin - Once again CNN's John Cafferty lays it out there on exactly what is wrong with Sarah Palin. She claims to be want to be treated like any other candidate (while crying foul when they do) but sometimes the truth hurts. She is clearly incompetent of Bushian levels. The fear isn't VP Palin; the fear is if it becomes President Palin.


Parker Starting to Feel the Pain - Kathleen Parker did something rather extraordinary for Republicans last week. She actually disagreed with party leadership and said that Palin should step down as a VP candidate. Dissent is no-no of the party where individual opinions are frowned upon when not first derived from party leadership and the result was apparently a rather violent backlash of "Dixie Chicks" levels, at least for Parker. Funny how she finally gets what people like me has been complaining about for years.

Diebold vs. Homer Simpson - Hilarious spoof of the notorious flaky Diebold machines (always to Republican favor) from this year's annual Treehouse of Horror episode.