Time to guess what will make moolah this summer and what will not. These are all guesses and if I turn out to be right...I claim the hard work and dedication to achieve accuracy. Money is domestic only not overseas. Money makers are not so much "greatest weekend ever!!!" and "#1 comedy/drama on a fourth sunday in May!" and more of a cost (movie + advertisement) - sells = moolah type of deal.
The money makers, most of which are gimme's.
- Superman (350 million) - The ticket of the summer. Everyone and their mother will go see this. Word of mouth and repeat sells will drive this movie into the number movie of the summer easy. I expect a 110 million opening weekend.
- X-Men: The Last Stand (250 million) - This will be the other ticket of the summer and get lots o repeat business, good for the money machine.
- Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (225 million) - Its like printing money.
- The Da Vinci Code (215 million) - Based on huge book, Tom Hanks, and looks interesting as heck. Don't see much repeat business though.
- Cars (180 million) - Its going to be considered a miss by Pixar standards. I don't think it will have the repeat buys and solid word of mouth that previous Pixar films had.
- Click (150 million) - Its creative looking, it might actually have heart, the teaser gives the entire story away and its has Kate Beckinsale looking hotterific.
- Over The Hedge (135 million) - Looks cute as heck and might even entertain better then the Wild did.
Break-even (make enough of its money back to not be a complete failure)
- Mission Impossible 3 (125 million) - Tom Cruise will hurt it but not as much as people think, DVDs though is where this will get back its cost.
- Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (100 million) - Its fast and the furious, high on action, low on personality, story, and special effects.
- Talladega Nights (80 million) - "Made by the team of Weatherman" should be a red flag about how mcuh this movie will suck. The NASCAR crowd will see it opening weekend, and thats about it.
- Snakes on a Plane (75 million) - Everyone says sleeper hit. I say break-even. Even with the man Samuel L Jackson and a bevy of internet support, I think it will be the Serenity of 2006.
- Strangers with Candy (35 million) - Based on a comedy central show about a creepy ugly women. Its a cheap movie so its doesn't take much to break even.
- Clerk II (35 million) - Technically a failure but because its cheap to make, its would take a really poor showing to actually loose money. Their are enough View-Askewverse fans to keep it even.
The money loosers.- Poseidon (75 million) - Retread of a tired story that was recently horrible done on TV
- Miami Vice (90 million) - Based on the slick 80s show and probably re-imagined for the egos of Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx. Lots of things go boom and you will take a snooze.
- My Super Ex-Girlfriend (65 million) - Superhero and love never mixes well. With Uma "depends on lightning to look good" Thurman, there really isn't a hook to make this movie rise above the rest of the movie noise.
- The Break-Up (60 million) - Vince Vaugn does his thing and does it well, but Jennifer Aniston for all her sex appear isn't nearly as good as she and Hollywood thinks she is. Get a second coming on DVD though.
- A Scanner Darkly (60 million) - Curious looking film that will only get sells from comic fans, the curious and the bored.
- World Trade Center (55 million) - United 93 shows that US just isn't ready for 9/11 films. That combines with the always touchy and conspiracy prone Oliver Stone, and many will take a pass.
- The Omen (50 million) - Frankly its being sold horribly and interest seems to be in the non-existant range. Plus its the Omen, a crappy movie the first time it was made and in today's horror = gore or atmosphere but no story, well the signs are bad.
- DOA: Dead or Alive (50 million) - Based on a video game and the track record or those is basically 0 for 1000.
- The Devil Wears Prada (45 million) - One of those Wha? movies for everyone but those that read the book. The cast will get some feet in the door and thats about it.
- Nacho Libre (40 million) - Jack Black may be in it but a stinker is a stinker. This isn't the sleeper many are predicting.
- Garfield's A Tale of Two Kitties (20 million) - The first stunk, this will stink worse. But the goal is just to make some moolah in theatres to help make even more moolah on DVD. The producers will be pleased with any ticket sells.
The suprises.
- Monster House (150 million) - I don't think this movie is on most people's radar but by the time the summer is done most people will have found out about this film and be suprised.
- Just My Luck (80 million) - Lindsay Lohen looking hot and back in her comfort zone. Simple cheap movie that will get the tweens in the seats.
Not to many suprises this year but after the poor showing in theatres last years, studios are going to play it safe as much as possible. The rest is up to the viewing public. Don't feel sad though, with DVD sales and the growing overseas market, even a "failure" can still be profitable (assuming the studios didn't screw themselves on backend points with the stars.)
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