Clinton, McCain Take Election Lead

In a bit of a shocker, Hillary Clinton and John McCain pulled off an upset in New Hampshire. The polls and the experts where saying the primary would go to Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

The election is important because it provides momentum into the upcoming votes in Nevada (1/19), South Carolina (1/26), and Super Tuesday on 2/5 when 20 states vote. This change in momentum, noticed on pretty much any news program, is the additional coverage it brings to a campaign, more ears listening to their speeches and issues, more money and the simple reality that people flock to "winners." People are not going to support someone that they think will lose an election. They vote for the "electable" candidate. A moronic idea, voting on who will win rather then the issues but that's human nature for you.

Also of note with this victory is how the polls and pundits got it wrong. On McCain, I don't think anyone has any clue how that happened but on Obama, the reason seems to be the Bradley Effect. Basically, in the effect is that people when asked who they will vote will say one thing but in the privacy and anomity of a voting booth will do another. So with Barack, that means that when asked by a pollster, reporter, whoever, will they vote for a black man or will they vote for Barack, the person will answer yes. They don't want to be labeled as racist after all. But once go to vote, where their vote is counted but no one really knows who they voted for, then they vote for a completely different person. Basically the usual conflict between actions and words.

I think this theory has legs. Its not necessarily racism but its difficult to explain why you may not have confidence in a black (or female) candidate without resulting in conflict so the decision is make to reply with the answer that will cause the least problems. This skews the polling results and so the pundits are surprised at what the voters actually do. I don't think the results are wide spread but even if only 10% of the electorate do the above, it can have a huge effect on what the polls say versus what actually happens. In this case a comfortable lead for Barack in the polls suddenly becomes victory for Hillary once the votes are actually counted.

If the Bradley Effect is true, this can cause problems for the Democratic Party. If voters are reluctant to vote for a black man but not admit it, its not a stretch to assume the same qualified for a female candidate. Exactly how many voters are going to simply refuse to vote a Democrat for President if they are black or female? 1%? 5%? 10%? more? How do you find out? Can you find out? Can they be pursuaded to vote Democrat anyway and if so how? These questions, more then the issues, politics, and promises may decide the election in 2008.